Generalizing from Facts in Predicting Court Cases
Nagel, Stuart S.
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This Commentary illustrates how case outcomes and damages can be predicted through the use of simple averaging procedures. The process involves an estimation of probabilities of victory and damages likely to be awarded for each relevant factual matter, and then a calculation of an average estimate used to obtain an overall victory probability and probable damages, This Commentary applies the Policy/Goal Procedure (P/G%) decision-aiding software for attorneys, which was lauded by the Supreme Court in Ballew v. Georgia, through concrete examples.