Evaluating the role of energy demand prediction and renewable energy utilization on energy dependency management : a generic system dynamics model
Rabiei Hosseinabad, Emad
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Supplying energy has become one of the biggest concerns of developed countries due to the growing energy needs in the last decades. Security of energy supply has forced countries to rely more on energy imports from external sources, and become energy dependent to a greater extent. Utilizing available renewable energy resources has been characterized as a reliable indicator to mitigate energy dependency in countries as well as securing the supplying of energy-based needs in the future. This research explores the impact of renewable energies as trustful resources in mitigating energy imports form external sources with investigation of its viability with sustainable perspective and how accurately predicting the energy consumption can lead to better examination of energy dependency. A system dynamics model with special aim on the role of renewable energy resources on decreasing energy dependency has been constructed. By analyzing the dynamics of the model, different scenarios of renewable energy policies are employed as interventions to be implemented and assessed in the model while investigating the applicability of renewable energies, to manage national energy supply sustainably. To illustrate the benefits of renewable energy utilization, the proposed model is applied to the State of Illinois in the United States to analyze the decrease in imported energy resources from external sources and its subsequent cost savings due to applying the pre-defined renewable energy action plans scenarios. The results indicate that the system dynamics approach outperforms in predicting energy demand compared to the most commonly used techniques in energy forecasting studies and under which policies the desired level of energy dependency will be sustainably achieved. The system dynamics model aids policy and decision makers to review their renewable energy promotion plans to achieve a desirable level of dependency and security of energy supply.