Economic base changes in counties impacted by military base closures
Moore, Andrea D.
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Fear of long-term detrimental economic and social impacts and uncertainty of recovery are common community reactions to news of impending economic shock such as closure of a local military base. Driven by economic base theory, this study examines the pre- and post-closure changes to and the relationships between export and residentiary employment within the US counties affected by the 1995 and 2005 Base Closure and Realignment Commission (BRAC) closures. Analysis of changes in the overall economic base composition of impacted counties has been little addressed within existing base closure research, especially for the most recent 1995 and 2005 BRAC rounds. Using county-level industry employment data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2014, multipliers calculated using OLS regression models provide details as to the relationships between basic and non-basic industry sectors in affected counties over time, examining both rounds separately. A shift-share analysis on select locations examines changes on the local level in greater detail. The absence of any similar economic base changes between two BRAC rounds refutes the notion that communities affected by military base closure should expect the same impacts. Multipliers are varied when comparing the study areas for the 1995 and 2005 BRAC closure rounds, suggesting that local factors have an influence on those economic base changes. Shift-share results reinforce the impact of local competitive factors, which include location and efforts of the local planners and community. As supported by previous research on military base closures, post-closure redevelopment and recovery will depend on the unique local situations.