Neighborhood shopping center reclamation in the Chicago metropolitan region, 1970-1990
Manning, Matthew W.
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The change in retail composition of neighborhood shopping centers in the Chicago metropolitan region is examined to determine if regional market and local retailers are reclaiming preexisting centers. A sample of 40 centers is collected and the tenants of each are classified as either regional market leaders, local chains, or independent retailers. Reclamation is measured by the change in the proportion of regional market and local tenants from 1980 to 1990. Centers are then classified as either "regional market increase," "local increase," "independent increase," or "no change." A Discriminant Analysis is employed to evaluate the center classification scheme based on a composite of variables generated by a stepwise selection procedure. The stepwise procedure found four variables which best differentiated between the groups. A geography variable representing the distance to the nearest competitor (DISCOM) was found to provide the most explanation in the change in retail composition. The discriminant analysis showed that 41 out of 80 observations were correctly classified, with most falling into the "local increase" class. An analysis of the change in a variable's value and the impact on reclassification revealed that the proportion of regional market leaders at a center (PCTRM) and distance to the nearest competitor (DISCOM) were the most influential variables in causing a center to be reclassified. Keywords: marketing geography, shopping center, Chicago