The determinants of metropolitan growth
Interregional differences in the growth rates of population and employment are an important area in geography. This paper examines growth trends for metropolitan areas in the U.S. through the application of a theoretical model to U.S. Census data for the periods 1980-1990 and 1990-1994. The theoretical model, based on earlier works by Carlino and Mills, and Clark and Murphy, permits simultaneous determination of population and employment densities. The model is applied to data for the 273 MSAs and CMS As in the U.S. to analyze the effects of economic, demographic, climatic, and policy-related variables on the growth of population and employment. Results from the model indicate that population and employment growth was simultaneous as many of the same variables exerted similar influences on each. Growth patterns for the 1990s differed from those of the 1980s, with smaller metropolitan areas in the Northeast and Midwest growing at a faster rate as growth slowed in the South and West. The regression results, and the spatial distribution of the variables, indicate interdependence among the variables. This allows the variables to be grouped to describe differences between regions or population groups.