Abstract:
A database of tornado fatalities, nontornadic convective wind fatalities, severe thunderstorm warnings,
and tornado warnings was compiled for the period 1986–2007 to assess the spatial and temporal distribution
of warned and unwarned fatalities. The time of fatality and location as reported in Storm Data was compared
to tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings to determine if a warning was in effect when the fatality
occurred. Overall, 23.7% of tornado fatalities were unwarned, while 53.2% of nontornadic convective wind
fatalities were unwarned. Most unwarned tornado fatalities occurred prior to the mid-1990s—coinciding
with modernization of the National Weather Service—while unwarned nontornadic convective wind fa-
talities remained at a relatively elevated frequency throughout the study period. Geographic locations with
high numbers of unwarned tornado and nontornadic convective wind fatalities were associated with one
high-magnitude event that was unwarned rather than a series of smaller unwarned events over the period.
There are many factors that contribute to warning response by the public, and the issuance of a severe
thunderstorm or tornado warning is an important initial step in the warning process. A better understanding
of the characteristics of warned and unwarned fatalities is important to future reduction of unwarned
fatalities.
